Falling Global Crude Oil Price

Crude Oil :

 

Crude_Oil_Aviatorflight

Crude_Oil_Aviatorflight

Crude Oil has a great impact on our economy. The prices of Crude Oil gives direct impact on the ATF and other fuels hence ultimately It dictates the prices of every commodity .

Back in June, the entire world suddenly became aware of the Muslim fundamentalist group called IS. This band of revolutionaries threatened to disrupt Iraq’s oil output, just as that country was beginning to open the taps and sell to the world . OPEC‘s estimates of world demand for oil showed that the loss of Iraq’s output would produce a large shortfall in supply. When supply cannot meet demand, prices rise. However, that simplistic view ignored many other factors that were coming into play in the oil market. Speculators talked the market up and encouraged panic buying. That panic pricing lasted long enough for those insiders heavily stocked with oil futures to offload them on the general public.

 

Aviation Turbine Fuel

Aviation Turbine Fuel

The total expense on the ATF (Aviation Turbine Fuel ) is considered more than 40% in an airline. Its the biggest factor  for any airline operations. During 2010-2011, we have seen the crude price reached more than $ 140 per Barrel. During this year it was stable around $110/Bbl from October till June. After June it started continuously decreasing and on 30 October it was traded at just $86.50/Bbl. This is close to 3 years lowest price. All the major economies are rejoicing over the prices and stock market are likely to go up with global positive cues.

 

1 Year Crude Oil Prices - Crude Oil Price Chart
It takes certain time for the govt to reduce the prices of ATF and other fuels like Petrol,Diesel etc. However if the prices of crude continuously trades below $90/bbl it will be beneficial for all the airlines and other industries.
The prices for ATF as on 30 Oct are as follows :
Delhi 67525.63
Kolkata 77372.56
Mumbai 69610.50
Chennai 73775.91

 

 

The previous prices of ATF are as follows :

Month Delhi Kolkata Mumbai Chennai
September 01, 2014 69603.25 79537.36 71829.42 76023.95
August 01, 2014 70044.87 79956.79 72289.44 76470.76
July 01, 2014 70161.76 80076.09 72411.21 76527.22

 

We can clearly see the impact of falling crude prices in India & we can say “Acche Din Aa Gaye Hain”. There will be more reduction in the prices which are expected very soon. The last reduction in the price of ATF was 3%.

“The falling of ATF prices will reduce our burden “-CEO of a low cost carrier.

 

There are currently nine Scheduled Airlines in Indian Aviation :

  1. Jet Airways
  2. Air India
  3. Jet Lite
  4. SpiceJet
  5. Go Air
  6. Indigo
  7. Air Costa
  8. Air Asia
  9. Vistara Air ( expected to fly by Nov end)

 

 

Nine Upcoming airlines in India :

 

1. Air One (Scheduled Airlines )

2.Zexus Air (Scheduled Airlines )

3.Seven Sister Airlines( Scheduled Airlines )

4.Turbo Airlines ( Regional Airlines )

5.Ligare Aviation ( Regional Airlines )

6.Air Carnival ( Regional Airlines )

7. MSD Aviation ( Cargo Airlines)

8. ZAV Airways ( Regional Airlines )

9.Air Pegasus ( Regional Airlines)

 

Around 230 Non Scheduled and Private Operators In India :

 

  1. Accurate Commodeal Pvt. Ltd.
  2. ABHIJEET PROJECTS
  3. ABG RESOURCES PVT LTD.
  4. ADANI EXPORT LTD.
  5. ARROW AIRCRAFTS & Sales
  6. AERIAL ADVERTISING PVT.LTD.
  7. ALPHA AVIATION
  8. AEROTECH AVIATION INDIA PVT. LTD.
  9. AAA AVIATION
  10. CLICK to Know more

 

The aviation sector will definitely get a good boost with the global falling prices of crude oil. After a long time more airlines are likely to post profits. The prices of the ticket might get reduce a bit .

Predictions of IS curtailing Iraqi oil sales overlooked a fundamental flaw in the organization and its leaders. IS needs money, and its leaders like luxuries. The declared “Caliph” (Muslim Pope) of the group drew ridicule across the world on his first appearance in video on Western news slots by sporting a $5,000 Omega watch. IS controlled a small oil field in Northern Syria, and, after taking over Mosul in Northern Iraq, got access to more. Far from shutting down production, IS cranked up sales by offering bargain basement prices. IS does not have access to international markets, however, and so their low sales price stolen oil cannot be counted as a factor behind the recent fall in the Brent Crude Index.

IS sells its oil in Turkey and smuggles it over the border. Turkey, NATO’s second largest military power and ally of the United States, seems to frequently get away with flouting NATO’s Middle Eastern strategy. The country was also found to be sanction busting during the embargo on Iran, but faced no punishments from the US. Opposition politicians within Turkey, however, are not so willing to turn a blind eye – Ali Ediboglu, of the Republican People’s Party recently drew the world’s attention to Turkey’s back-door support of IS through oil purchases. IS oil sales now account for about 3.5 per cent of Turkey’s oil supply, which is not a significant portion of the world market.

Conclusion

The current oil price falls have been in the pipeline for a long time and they are set to continue. OPEC does not seem to be prepared to do anything and intends to debate whether to support a Brent Crude price of $90 at its next meeting in November 2014. The fact that this price level is not an urgent certainty for the club shows that it is unlikely to be defended. A fall to $80 seems likely over the next year. A rush to develop oil production in Europe could even see the oil price fall to $60 a barrel if Denmark is going to find a market for all its Arctic oil. If there is anyone in the world that would find such a price difficult to contemplate, it must be Russia. However, at the beginning of October 2014, Russia’s central bank announced a $60 price would be its trigger to intervene in the economy. That shows that even the Russian’s can see further price falls ahead and are planning for them.

Comments

  1. By Tanaya

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